Monetary System in the Islamic World - Halal Journal

The Origins of Paper Money - Part Two: Monetary System in the Islamic World
By The Halal Journal

Original Article Source: The Halal Journal Mar/Apr 2008

How did money as a medium of exchange for foods and services evolve into its current form we know and use today? Hazel Hassan Hisham transports us back into time and traces its origins in this second of a two-part article that chronicles the evolution of paper money.
The first Muslim coins were struck during the Caliphate of Uthman (ra), 644-656 CE. The first original minting of Islamic dirham was done in 695 CE (75 AH) during the reign of Khalifah 'Abd al-Malik. It followed the standard set by Umar Ibn al-Khattab (ra).
These coins included the phrase: "Allah is Unique, Allah is Eternal". Beginning with these coins the use of human figures and animals was discontinued. Both the dinar and dirham coins were round in shape. Typically, one side of the coin was stamped with the words "La ilaha illallah" and "Alhamdulillah" and the obverse side with the name of the caliph or ruler and the date of minting.
The earliest Arab coins imitated those of the Persians (the Sassanians) and the Byzantines. The Arab-Sassanian series goes back as far as 31 AH (Hijriah) just 21 years after the death of Prophet Muhammad S.A.W. The Sassanian coins resumed a century later by the Arab governors of the Tabaristan province (on the southern border of the Caspian Sea). The Arab-Byzantine coins imitated the copper 40-nummia pieces of the 7th century Byzantine Emperors.
The Arab coinage was reformed in 77-79 AH (696-98 AD), creating the main Umayyad series. Its copper denomination, the Fals, exhibited a wide variety of types, but the silver coin, the dirham, used a single calligraphic type at all of the mints of the Caliphate. This coin, with its religious inscriptions and its consistent use of a date and a mint name, set a pattern that was followed for the next few centuries throughout the Islamic world.
The Abbasid series is similar to the Umayyad, but the script takes on a distinctive form that exaggerates the horizontal letters and makes the others microscopic. The Caliph's name is absent on the early issues (as on the Umayyad Dirhams), but it appears on some coins of al-Mahdi (775-85 AD) and becomes a standard feature on all later issues.
During the early 900s AD, the Abbasid Caliphs came under the power of the Buwayhid rulers and lost their temporal authority. Their coins came to an end, but their names were often placed on the coinage of other rulers, citing them as Islam's spiritual head. In a later age, the Abbasid Caliphs regained control of a temporal state, but those coins are of a much different style. Some non-Abbasid coins can be deceptive when they include the Caliph's name but happen to omit the name of the temporal ruler.
In the medieval Islamic world, a vigorous monetary economy was created during the 7th-12th centuries based on the expanding levels of circulation of a stable high-value currency - the Dinar. The Islamic gold dinar (sometimes referred as Islamic dinar or Gold dinar) is a bullion gold coin made from 4.25 grams of 22-carat (k) gold with historical Islamic significance.
The Dirham and Dinar were both used as the official Islamic currency beginning with the second Caliphate, 634-644 CE. The Islamic Dinar is the weight of gold equivalent to 4.25 grams, whereas the Islamic Dirham is the weight of silver equivalent to 3.0 grams. Umar Ibn al-Khattab established the known standard relationship between the two based on their weights: 7 dinars must be equivalent to 10 dirhams.

Gold has always had value to humans, even before it was money. This is demonstrated by the extraordinary efforts made to obtain it. Prospecting for gold was a worldwide effort going back thousands of years, even before the first money in the form of gold coins appeared. In the quest for gold by the Phoenicians, Egyptians, Indians, Hittites, Chinese, and others, prisoners of war were sent to work the mines, as were slaves and criminals. This happened during a time when gold had no value as 'money,' but was just considered a desirable commodity on itself.
The first use of gold as money occurred around 700 BC, when Lydian (Turkey) merchants produced the first coins. These were simply stamped lumps of a 63 per cent gold and 27 per cent silver mixture known as 'electrum.' This standardised unit of value, had no doubt helped Lydian traders in their wide-ranging successes, for by the time of Croesus of Mermnadae - the last King of Lydia (570-546 BC) - Lydia had amassed a huge hoard of gold. Today, we still speak of the ultra-wealthy as being 'rich as Croesus.'

Gold, measured out, became money. Gold was money in ancient Greece. The Greeks mined for gold throughout the Mediterranean and Middle East regions by 550 BC, and both Plato and Aristotle wrote about gold and had theories about its origins - one of them is that Gold was associated with water and it was said that gold was a particularly dense combination of water and sunlight.

The Islamic gold dinar came back to life as a consequence of a currency crisis in Asia in 1997. The then Prime Minister of Malaysia, Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, proposed the Islamic gold dinar as currency for international trade in the Muslim world. It was supposed to suppress the overly traded American dollar and ensure that dollar's instability does not affect international trade because Islamic gold dinar was to be tied to the price of gold, and thus provide a stable value of the currency.
Tun Dr. Mahathir once emphasised that the Gold Dinar policy is being driven by the crushing reality of the economic and strategic crisis. The Gold Dinar can be a trading currency for all countries, not necessarily Muslim countries alone. He strongly feels that the Muslim countries are in the best position to demonstrate the viability of the system and in the process, show the world that they are capable of growing with stability and peace.
However, the idea has since been halted. Perhaps one day, it will become a reality and the gold dinar will reign within the Muslim world one day.



Sumber: http://www.halaljournal.com/article/4869/the-origins-of-paper-money-?ae?-part-two:--monetary-system-in-the-islamic-world

Raja Terkaya Di Dunia Tahun 2010 Jatuh kepada.....

Assalamualaikum,
Bismillahi rahmanir rahim..
Tirai 2010 akan berlabuh tak berapa hari saja lagi. Dalam sebuah majalah Forbes membuat penyelidikan mengenai raja yang paling kaya pada tahun ini..pada tekaan saya mestilah raja Saudi atau Brunai..tapi raja yang paling kaya jatuh kepada Raja Thai Raja Bhumibol Adulyadej mempunyai harta lebih 20 bilion pound selain eset-eset lain dan emas. Mengapa ? sebab beliau menyimpan emas yang diberikan oleh negeri negeri melayu dahulu kot...Kedah, Kelantan dan Terengganu menghadiahkan bunga emas kepada raja Thai sebagai ufti. Sebab itulah Raja Thai kaya...tetapi Pulau Pinang bayar RM10,000 sahaja kepada Kedah sebagai sewa dari dahulu nak bayar gaji MB pun dah tak lapas sekarang. Kalaulah bayar se tan emas sewa dah tentu negeri Kedah dah kaya raya sekarang...Difahamkan Dr Hamdan Khalib Exco Kebudayaan sedang berusaha membawa balik bunga emas yang diberikan kepada Siam dahulu...mudah mudahan berhasil..harap kerajaan Kedah ambil iktibar supaya menggalakkan rakyat Kedah menyimpan dinar emas sebagai eset masa depan dan urusan harian. Jangan buat silap lagi macam kes sewa Pulau Pinang nanti nak bayar gaji keranipun meter ayaqpun tak lepas lagi 10 tahun..

MENGAPA PERLU MENYIMPAN EMAS?

Bismillahirahmanirahim,

Soalan mengapa perlu menyimpan emas?

Jawapannya ialah:

1. Kerana bersabit dengan nas. Satu hadis Sohih diriwayatkan oleh Abu Bakar Abi Maryam bahawa beliau mendengar Rasulullah SAW telah bersabda "Akan tiba suatu zaman di mana tiada apa yang bernilai dan boleh digunakan oleh umat manusia. Maka simpanlah dinar dan dirham (untuk digunakan).
Musnad Imam Ahmad Ibn Hanbal

Dengan mengamalkan dan mengambil nasihat hadis diatas kita akan pahala kerana mengikuti sunnah nabi s.a.w itu yang paling utama bagi diri umat Islam terutama di akhir zaman ini. Dalam solat iaitu selepas takbiratul ihram kita disunnatkan membaca doa iftitah (ikrar) dan ada satu perenggan doa ada menyebut innasolati wanusuki wamahyaya wamamati, sesungguhnya solatku, segala pekerjaanku, hidup dan matiku kerana Allah taala. Oleh itu kita menyimpan emas dinar dan dirham ini ialah kerana Allah taala sudah pasti ada hikmahnya nabi s.a.w menyuruh umatnya menyimpan emas. Kerana nabi tidak bercakap menurut logik dan nafsunya melainkan semuanya wahyu dari Allah s.w.t.


2. Emas bernilai selamanya selagi ada bulan dan matahari sebelum bumi memuntahkan isinya berupa ketul ketulan emas dari isinya disebabkan kiamat seperti dinyatakan dalam surah Al Waqiah. Seluruh manusia mengiktiraf emas sebagai sesuatu yang bernilai. Allah menjadikan emas sebagai harta kekayaan untuk dimiliki oleh manusia dalam urusan dunia seharian.


3. Emas tidak mudah diperolehi dan tidak boleh dihasilkan oleh manusia seperti wang kertas. Setakat hari ini saya belum berjumpa dan mendengar kalau ada saintis yang terhebat didunia ini berjaya menghasilkan emas dalam experimennya. Kalau ada tolong tunjukkan kepada saya, tetapi wang kertas amat mudah bagi sesetengah pihak menghasilkannya dan memalsukannya. Emas mestilah diperolehi dengan cara melombong yang mana difahamkan sesebuah lombong yang aktif akan manghasilkan hanya 4 gram emas dengan pengeluran satu tan bijih emas.


4. Nilainya meningkat dalam jangkamasa panjang berbanding harta-harta lain. Keunggulan nilai emas dapat dibandingkan dengan harta yang kita miliki seperti hartanah, kenderaan dan simpanan wang. Semua harta akan menyusut nilai melainkan emas. Contohnya satu aun emas pada tahun 70an bersamaan USD35 tapi sekarang tahun 2010 mencecah USD1400.

Maka emas adalah penyimpan nilai terbaik dan pelaburan terbaik dan harta benda terbaik. Tidak mudah binasa.


Sekian sahaja buat kali ini...wassalam

NEGERI PERAK JUGA AKAN KELUARKAN DINAR & DIRHAMNYA SENDIRI

Bismillahirahmanirrahim,

Kebelakangan ini semakin ramai yang telah sedar termasuk pemimpin2 politik betapa pentingnya untuk mengembalikan Dinar dan Dirham sebagai matawang tak kiralah fahaman politik mana yang penting Wang Sunnah ini mesti dikembalikan sebagai wang. Sebab apa seperti tulisan Sheikh Imran Husein yang wang kertas ini punca segala masalah umat didunia hari ini. Wang kertas tidak mempunyai intrisic value dan dicipta untuk menghambakan manusia ( enslave mankind) lagi menurun nilai dari masa ke semasa akibat inflasi. Seperti kata Dr M, dulu se aun emas dinilaikan dengan USD35 1/35 tapi sekarang seaun mencecah USD1400 1/1400. Jadi setiap wang kertas yang disimpan akan menyusut samalah seperti hasil kekayaan titik peluk kita dikikis oleh orang lain sedikit demi sedikit. Sedangkan kerajaan Amerika dengan mudah mencetak wang kertas lagi untuk kononnya merangsangkan ekonominya dan bailout bank-bank yang muflis. Dengan hasil wang kertas yang mudah dicetak oleh mereka, dengan mudah mereka membeli barangan hasil titik peluh kita yang kerja membanting tulang untuk sara hidup. Kerja siang malam untuk menaikkan taraf hidup keluarga kadang-kadang tiada masa bersama keluarga sedangkan mereka dengan mudah mendapatkannya menggunakan dolar mereka. Segala hasil kita dinilai rendah oleh mereka dengan kertas dolar mereka. Sebenarnya merakalah perompak kekayaan kita sebenar.

Alhamdulillah sekarang telah ada usaha untuk mengembalikan wang sunnah dinar dan dirham maka sama-samalah kita terus berjihad untuk mengembalikannya. Pada peringkat awal ini disyorkan kita membeli dan menyimpan dahulu dan guna sesama kita sehingga satu masa yang akan ditentukan oleh Allah s.w.t kita dapat menggunakan sepenuhnya. Insyaallah. Berikut petikan kenyataan Kerajaan Perak



Perak To Also Introduce Dinar, Dirham - BERNAMA
02.11.2010
Perak To Also Introduce Dinar, Dirham
Perak Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Dr Zambry Abdul Kadir
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 2 (Bernama) -- After Kelantan, Perak will become the second state in the country to introduce the gold dinar and silver dirham currency to give its people more savings options.
Perak Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Dr Zambry Abdul Kadir said discussions on introducing this currency began two years ago and that it would be introduced in stages.
"We are also in the process of minting the gold dinar and silver dirham coins," he told Bernama after the World Usury Conference here Tuesday.
Asked whether the state would be using the Kelantan model for the currency, Zambry said the state would be using a different approach.
"Actually, we were the first to initiate the idea but Kelantan introduced the currency first but it is okay with us because it is a good thing," he said, adding, however, the currency would be subject to Bank Negara requirements. Earlier when disclosing the proposed project to the conference's participants, Zambry said Perak acknowledged that "gold is a good store of value".
He believed that since gold had played the role of money globally for centuries, its value was therefore expected to rise during a crisis.
"By putting some of their savings in gold and silver, the people can protect the value of their savings from depreciating.
"In the current hyper inflationary conditions, this would be truly a positive thing for the people," he said.

-- BERNAMA

Seriousness of the Gold Dinar

Dr. Mahathir Bin Mohammed

- If the Muslims are going to protect themselves they must have sufficient wealth. Allah has endowed Muslim countries with inexhaustible wealth. These need to be administered for the good of the ummah.

- But wealth can also be acquired through commercial activities, through the production and distribution of goods and services and through trade.

- Today trade between Muslim countries is small. It is not suggested that we reduce our trade with the non-Muslims. But we should endeavour to increase the trade between Muslim countries.

- We can trade through the exchange of goods, through barter. But today we use money. Since we don't have a currency which is strong enough and stable enough in exchange rate terms, we have to use the American dollar. But the dollar is also not stable. Today the dollar has depreciated against many other currencies. This means that despite the increase in the price of oil for example, we are actually earning less due to the devaluation of the dollar. It is the same with the other currencies. It is the same with our own currencies. They all fluctuate in value. And they are all subject to speculation and manipulation as happened in Malaysia and other East Asian countries, in Russia and in Latin America.

- The reason for this is that paper currency has no intrinsic value. You can print any figure you like on currency notes but in exchange rate terms the figure means nothing. The Malaysian Ringgit is 3.8 to one U.S. Dollar. The Turkish Lira is 1.5 million to one U.S. Dollar. The Indonesian Rupiah is 9000 to one U.S. Dollar. The purchasing power w

ithin the country is different from the purchasing power outside the country. Sometimes countries have as maClearly this situation in terms of international finance is chaotic and anarchic. But since the system benefits the powerful countries they are unwilling to correct it.

- If we want to avoid being short-changed we must have a currency that has intrinsic value. Gold does fluctuate in price but the fluctuation is minimal. It is not possible to devalue gold by one hundred percent or one thousand percent. Nor is it possible to revalue gold by the same percentage. The fluctuation in the value of gold can only be by a few percentages, up or down.

- When the Allied nations met in Bretton Woods to determine the principle for the rate of exchange of international currencies in order to facilitate trade, they decided to use gold as a standard. The value of the U.S. Dollar was fixed at one dollar for 1/35 ounce of gold or 35 U.S. Dollars per ounce. All other currencies were valued in gold through the rates of exchange with the U.S. Dollar.

- This worked quite well until some countries wanted to devalue their currencies in order to become competitive in the international market. Then other countries also decided to devalue in order to remain competitive. Finally the U.S. Dollar was devalued against the Gold.

- At this stage the gold standard could not be sustained. The market claimed that it could determine the exchange rate through the demand and supply of currencies freely traded in the market. But profiteers moved in and they manipulated the value of the currencies so that there was chaos in terms of exchange rates of currencies. Business became very difficult. Indeed many good businesses went bankrupt when the domestic currency gets devalued. The hedge Funds which claim to insure the value of the currencies made huge sums of money speculating and manipulating the values of the currencies.

- This anarchy in the international financial regime will remain because it benefits the rich and the powerful. If we want to protect ourselves we must evolve our own payment system, our own trading currency.

- The Gold dinar can provide the currency for trade between nations. If we value all trade items against gold, then we will have no problem with the exchange rate. We know that in the last resort we can melt the gold and sell it in the market. You obviously cannot do that with paper currency, worst still with figures on a computer. They have no intrinsic market value as gold has.

- But gold is bulky. We cannot be carrying gold all over the world in order to pay for goods we want to import. But we need not do that.

- It is not intended to use the gold dinar as currency for everyday transactions in the domestic market. For this we can use national currencies. If there is inflation then the currency can buy less gold and other goods. And vice versa. So there is no necessity to carry bags of gold coins for transaction within the countries.

- But even for international trade the transport of gold bullions or gold coins would be very minimal. Through bilateral payments arrangements the imports can be balanced by the exports and the differences settled in gold dinars. The Central Bank can provide a guarantee for the gold required for the payments of the balance. In the following weeks or months the deficits may be reduced or a surplus achieved. In that case the payments of the balance can be made through accounting arrangements between the Central Banks. It is only occasionally that a necessity might arise for the actual gold dinar to be used to pay for the purchase of imports.

- We cannot really verify the amount of money a country has. A country's own currency cannot be regarded as its reserve. But gold dinars or gold bullion or gold ingots can serve as a country's reserve. Still in the end we have to trust each other. If we are good Muslims then the cases of fraud by Central Banks would be minimal.

- Assuming that Malaysia exports to a Dinar Area country a hundred million Dinars worth of motor vehicles and then imports 110 million dinars worth of oil, then the payment required by Malaysia would be just 10 million dinars. The ten million dinars is credited to Malaysia's trading partner. If in the following month the trading partner buys 110 million dinars worth of Malaysian cars and Malaysia buys 100 million dinars worth of oil, then no payment need to be made by either party. The 10 million dinars that has to be paid by Malaysia's trading partner for the motor vehicle can be offset by the credit of 10 million dinars from the previous month's transactions.

- Today with computers we can close account and pay more frequently. Through this method it is not necessary to purchase or earn hard currency.

- Of course there may be some countries which are so poor that they cannot have gold dinars. We can buy some raw materials to be paid in gold dinars. They can be helped to build up the reserves of gold dinars.

- There will be problems. But if we begin with just a pair of countries we would be able to minimize problems and demonstrate whether it works or not. We will be able to identify the weaknesses and the faults and correct them.

- Gold is a precious metal. There has never been a time when there was no demand for gold. It is also not so plentiful that its price will fall the way paper currency or even other precious metals can fall. Yet it is not so limited in quantity that anyone or any trader can corner it and manipulate the price.

- In different countries the price of gold will differ in terms of the currency of that country. That is a function of the currency of the country. The value of one gold dinar is one gold dinar no matter what the exchange rate of a currency is against the gold dinar. If the value of goods or services is expressed in gold dinar, the value remains the same no matter which country is involved in the trade.

- Thus an exporter can declare the agreed price in dinar to the importer in another country and to the Central Bank in his country. Depending on the agreement reached the Central Bank will pay the exporter the current local currency equivalent to the gold dinar price. At the importer's end, he would pay to his country's Central Bank the local currency equivalent of the agreed price in dinar. At the end of the week or month the Central Banks will total up the value in dinar of the exports and imports between the two trading countries. If they are not balanced then the country with a surplus will have a credit account against the country with a deficit. The difference can be paid in dinar or in goods or the country with the surplus can hold the dinar for future purchase from the country in deficit.
In multi-lateral trade, the process may be a little more complicated but it is entirely, manageable. A clearing house can be set up for a group of trading countries and the deficit and surpluses balanced. The process is not unlike the clearing of the cheques of numerous banks at a central clearing house.

- Provided there are goods or services to be supplied by all participating countries, the amount of gold dinars that needs to be kept as reserve backing and for payment in the last resort is very small. Ideally there would be no need to transport and pay in dinars. The imports and exports in most instances would cancel themselves. The profits come from disposing of the goods or services domestically when the local currency would be used.

- There will be problems of course. But there are problems now. Countries with no "hard currency" i.e. U.S. dollars cannot pay for their imports anyway. In addition the U.S. currency is not as stable as gold. Not only can it appreciate or depreciate widely but a country's currency can be made to depreciate so much against the U.S. Dollar that its imports cannot be paid for, priced as they are in U.S. Dollar. The gold dinar cannot depreciate much against the U.S. Dollar.

- Gold price can also be manipulated but not as easily as U.S. Dollar or other currency. No one can sell gold at below market price because he just will not be able to deliver when called upon to do so. Short-selling will be very difficult if not impossible.

- However local currency prices of gold can still fluctuate if left to the market. It is up to the country concerned whether to control exchange rates or not. But speculation and manipulation will not be as easy as when local currency is valued against the U.S. Dollar.

- It must again be stressed that the Gold Dinar is exclusively for international trade. It is not to be used as local currency. In a sense it is like the U.S. Dollar now. Some countries of course use the U.S. Dollar locally for paying hotel bills by foreigners. But the dinar is heavy and cumbersome to carry. So it cannot be used as freely as the U.S. Dollar locally. This again lends credibility to the dinar and the local currency, which has to be used for local payment.

- We should not be too ambitious as to launch the Gold Dinar for multi-lateral trade at one go. We should begin by pairing off the countries willing to use the Gold Dinar. A pair of good trading countries with a fairly well balanced trade should initiate the use of the Gold Dinar. Problems that arise can be resolved and the system improved. After the bugs have been got rid off then the trade using the dinar can be expanded gradually to involve more countries.

- Traders in particular will be happy because their prices in Gold Dinar would not be affected by changes in the exchange rates of the importing countries or the exporting countries. In dinar, the prices will always remain the same.

- It is not the intention to make the dinar a common currency for all countries. It is not really the Gold Standard with a fixed value against local currency. If countries print more local currency there would still be inflation within the country. But trade would be stable and enhanced. Speculators and manipulators will not be able to undermine international trade.

- Of course the Gold Dinar can be a trading currency, for all countries, not necessarily Muslim countries. But Muslim countries are in the best position to demonstrate the viability of the system. They are in a position to manage their economies rationally and in the process show the world that they are capable of growing with stability and in peace. And this will do more towards countering oppressions by their enemies than the futile violent retaliations.
Sumber: http://www.taxfreegold.com/gold-dinar.html
ny as four exchange rates -- one official, one for domestic economy, one for export and one for import.

Sheikh Imran Hussein

Sama-sama ambil pedoman pandangan ulama' ini

Wassalam

CHINA FAKTOR UTAMA KENAIKKAN HARGA EMAS TINGGI TAHUN 2010

Gold likely to hit $1,600 in 2011 - Credit Suisse-Mineweb

Gold likely to hit $1,600 in 2011 - Credit Suisse
Many of the drivers that have been pushing prices higher throughout 2010 are expected to persist and demand from China will be a major factor
Author: Geoff Candy
Posted: Wednesday , 08 Dec 2010
GRONINGEN -
Many of the factors that have pushed gold higher over the course of 2010 are expected to continue into 2011, which should see gold prices trading as high as $1,600 before year-end.
This is the view of Tom Kendall, Vice President for commodities research at Credit Suisse. Speaking on Mineweb.com's Gold Weekly podcast, Kendall said the bank remains rather bullish about gold's prospects for 2011 but, he wouldn't be surprised if things quieten down in the run-up to the new year.
He says there has already been some evidence of this in the key Indian market and the Middle East has also been fairly quiet.
He adds, "As the prices ticked up back about $1,400 we've seen a push up in scrap volumes coming through into the market as well. So from the physical side there are reasons to be a little bit cautious as we go through to the close of the year. But from the investment side of the market still a lot of interest from shorter-term players.
"Technically the chart looks pretty good for gold both in US dollar terms and in euro terms and although some of the bigger macro funds will be reducing risk ahead of the close of the year, we've probably got another week to ten days or so of decent activity in the shorter term money flows."
Asked about the question of real interest rates and whether or not, Credit Suisse expects them to turn any time soon, Kendall, said, "The question of real interest rates is always there at the back of one's mind when looking at the gold market but from what we see out of the United States in terms of monetary policy in recent statements by Ben Bernanke and by the members of the FOMC it's clear to us and to our strategists in the United States that we are going to remain in a very low or even negative real interest rate environment in the United States for some considerable time to come and by that I mean at least 18 months and potentially much longer.
Moving into 2011, Kendall says the other big factor he is going to be watching is the developments within the Chinese market.

"I was in Shanghai last week and it is clear that there is a considerable amount of bullishness within the Chinese market about gold and the market is expanding and developing and evolving quite rapidly both in terms of the number of players coming in and in terms of the products that are available to investors and that's going to be one of the key themes as we go through 2011.
But, he cautions, while we are seeing a change in the investment market in places like China in that there is a strong pickup in demand from retail accounts for gold investment products primarily backed by physical gold, there is also a strong speculative element in the market.
And, lot of it "is also relative to what's going on in other asset classes so you have to keep an eye on what's happening in the property markets and the equity markets there as well."
Source: http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=116537&sn=Detail&pid=102055